How we built “One rule, very different realities: what “3 to 6 months of expenses” actually costs across the income distribution” — the metric, the sources, the limitations, and how to reproduce every number.
The metric
Emergency-fund target = N months of CE total average annual expenditures (N=3,6); build-burden = target / CE income before taxes, per income quintile.
Breakdown dimension: BLS CE quintile of income before taxes (and, in parallel, SHED fixed-dollar family-income brackets). Data vintage: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey LB01 2014–2024 (latest annual 2024); FRED [PSAVERT]; Federal Reserve SHED 2024.
Sources
- BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey (classification LB01, 2014–2024; series IDs: CXUTOTALEXPLB0101M, CXUINCBEFTXLB0101M, CXUHOUSINGLB0101M, CXUFOODTOTLLB0101M, CXUFOODHOMELB0101M, CXUHEALTHLB0101M)
- FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): series PSAVERT
Canopy Press analysis of BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, Federal Reserve SHED, and FRED data.
How it’s computed
All figures are deterministic arithmetic on the official series above — no estimates, no modeling. Raw API responses are snapshotted at the stated vintage; every published figure must reproduce from those snapshots before publication (an automated audit gate recomputes the table, the chart values, and the CSV byte-for-byte, and blocks publication on any mismatch).
Limitations
- All CE figures are all-consumer-unit means (owners and non-owners, working and retired), not medians.
- CE income quintiles and SHED income brackets are different partitions; presented as parallel, same-direction evidence.
- The lowest quintile spends more than reported income (CE feature); 53% is 'target large vs current reported income', not a literal savings rate.
- Before-tax income is the conservative denominator; after-tax would raise the build-burden percentages.
Reproduce it
Pull the series listed above from the official APIs at the stated vintage and recompute. Verification values (recomputed before publish):
| Check | Value |
|---|---|
| fund_3mo_low | 8761.5 |
| fund_3mo_high | 37585.5 |
| fund_3mo_spread_x | 4.29 |
| shed_cover_low | 24 |
| shed_cover_overall | 55 |
| shed_cover_high | 75 |
Accountability
Canopy Press research is produced by a methodology-driven, human-overseen pipeline. John Fox, Founder & Head of Research, is responsible for the data methodology and editorial standards behind this asset. Corrections: [email protected]. See our Editorial Standards and the research changelog.